India’s Fertility Rate Is Falling Fast: Could the Country Have More Elderly Than Children in the Future?

For many decades, India’s biggest demographic concern was population explosion. However, the situation is gradually changing. Today, experts are increasingly worried about the declining fertility rate in the country.

Recent demographic projections suggest that if the current trend continues, India’s population could age rapidly by 2050. By that time, people aged 60 years and above may account for nearly 20% of the total population. Some projections even indicate that by the time India celebrates 100 years of independence, the country could have more elderly people than children.

Interestingly, this is not just an Indian problem. Several developed nations are already struggling with extremely low birth rates. Within India, however, certain states—particularly Sikkim—are experiencing this issue more sharply than others.

What Is Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime.

For a population to remain stable, the ideal TFR is generally considered to be 2.1.

Current estimates show:

• Replacement level fertility: 2.1
• India’s current TFR: around 1.9–2.0

This means India is gradually moving below the replacement level, which could eventually lead to slower population growth and a larger proportion of elderly citizens.

Sikkim: The State with the Lowest Birth Rate in India

Among all Indian states, Sikkim has emerged as the region with the lowest fertility rate.

According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5):

• 2005–06: TFR was around 2.0
• 2015–16: TFR dropped to 1.2
• 2025–26 estimates: TFR around 1.1

This means that, on average, a woman in Sikkim is giving birth to only about 1.1 children, which is even lower than the fertility rate of countries like Japan that are known for aging populations.

Why Is Fertility Declining?

Experts believe that the decline in fertility rates is driven by several social, economic, and lifestyle factors.

1. Later Marriages and Delayed Parenthood

Young people today often prioritize higher education, career growth, and financial stability before starting a family. As a result, many couples are choosing to have children later in life, sometimes after the age of 30.

2. Rising Cost of Living

Raising children has become significantly more expensive. Expenses related to education, healthcare, housing, and childcare encourage many families to prefer smaller families or even a single child.

3. Women’s Education and Employment

As more women pursue higher education and professional careers, family planning decisions have evolved. Women today are more likely to delay childbirth or choose to have fewer children.

4. Fertility and Health Issues

In some cases, infertility and reproductive health challenges also contribute to lower birth rates. This has led governments to introduce schemes that support fertility treatments.

Sikkim’s “Vatsalya Scheme”

To address the declining birth rate, the government of Sikkim launched the Vatsalya Scheme in 2022.

The objective of the scheme was to support couples facing difficulties in conceiving.

Key features include:

• Financial assistance of up to ₹3 lakh for IVF and fertility treatments
• Support for reproductive healthcare services

Soon after the scheme was launched, 38 women registered for the program, indicating that reproductive health issues might also be contributing to the declining fertility rate.

Incentives to Encourage Childbirth

The Sikkim government also introduced several policies to encourage families to have more children.

For Government Employees:

• One additional salary increment for the second child
• Two additional increments for the third child
• One year of maternity leave for women
• Paternity leave for male employees

For Women in the Private Sector

• ₹5,000 per month for one year after the birth of a second child
• ₹10,000 per month after the birth of a third child

Additionally, the government arranged attendants to help care for the children of government employees.

Why Haven’t These Policies Increased Birth Rates?

Despite these incentives, the impact on fertility rates has been limited.

Experts suggest that:

• Social attitudes toward family size have changed
• Younger generations prefer smaller families
• Economic pressures influence family planning decisions

As a result, the government is now working with national research institutions to better understand the deeper reasons behind declining fertility.

Many Countries Are Facing the Same Challenge

India is not alone in dealing with declining fertility rates. Several countries around the world are experiencing similar trends.

Singapore

• TFR around 1.0
• The government offers baby bonuses, tax rebates, subsidized childcare, and housing incentives
• Despite these efforts, birth rates remain low.

South Korea

South Korea currently has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.

• TFR around 0.7 in 2023–24
• The government has spent billions on childcare subsidies and parental leave programs
• Yet the birth rate continues to decline.

Japan

Japan’s fertility rate is about 1.3, and the country is facing a rapidly aging population.

Hungary: A Partial Success Story

Some countries have seen modest success in improving fertility rates.

In Hungary, the government introduced strong family incentives starting in 2011:

• Housing subsidies for families
• Low-interest loans
• Income tax exemptions for women with four or more children

Within a decade, Hungary’s TFR increased from 1.23 to around 1.5. However, it still remains below the replacement level.

Should India Be Worried?

At present, India still benefits from having a large young population, which supports economic growth.

However, if fertility rates continue to decline significantly, the country could face several long-term challenges:

• A rapidly growing elderly population
• A shrinking working-age workforce
• Increased pressure on healthcare and social security systems

This is why experts believe India needs to carefully balance population policy, economic development, and family support systems.

India is gradually entering a new demographic phase where population growth may slow down significantly. States like Sikkim are already witnessing this transformation.

While lower fertility rates can sometimes reflect improved education and living standards, extremely low birth rates may create long-term economic and social challenges.

For India, the key challenge in the coming decades will be maintaining a balance between supporting families, sustaining economic growth, and managing an aging population.

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