Bihar Exit Poll Results 2025: The second phase of the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election concluded on Tuesday, and multiple exit-polls have now projected a decisive lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). According to key surveys:
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The NDA is forecast to secure 130-160 seats (and in some cases up to ~167).
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The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is projected to lag significantly, in the range of 70-100 seats.
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A new entrant, the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of Prashant Kishor, is likely to win 0-5 seats according to most polls.
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Voter turnout was exceptionally high — in Phase 2 alone, it crossed 67 %, a record for the state.
Exit-Poll Projections at a Glance
Here are representative numbers from major survey agencies:
| Pollster | NDA | MGB | Others / JSP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dainik Bhaskar | 145–160 | 73–91 | 5-10 |
| Matrize | 147–167 | 70–90 | ~0-2 |
| Peoples Pulse | 133–159 | 75–101 | 0-5 |
These figures suggest the NDA is strongly positioned to form the next government in Bihar, pending official results.
What this means
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Majority mark: The Bihar assembly has 243 seats. A simple majority mark is 122 seats. Most exit-poll ranges for the NDA are well above this mark.
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Clear edge for NDA: Most projections show the NDA returning to power with a comfortable margin rather than a tight finish.
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Weak opposition showing: The Mahagathbandhan appears unable, according to these surveys, to mount a serious challenge this time.
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New party struggle: The Jan Suraaj Party’s debut has been forecast as meagre in terms of seat wins, despite media attention.
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Voter engagement high: The record turnout could be interpreted as a sign of higher electoral engagement — possibly favouring incumbents or strong ground-organisations.
Caveats & What to Watch
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Exit-polls are not definitive. They represent sample-based predictions, subject to errors and margins. Experts caution against over-reading them.
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Voting trends may shift in specific regions or communities; local level data may differ from aggregate projections.
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The official counting and result declaration (scheduled for 14 November 2025) will provide the final word.
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Turnout composition (gender, region, age) and booth-level swings could change outcomes vs forecasts.
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Past experience: Exit-polls in Bihar have missed the mark previously, so mindful interpretation is crucial.
Why Bihar 2025 Matters
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Bihar is a politically strategic state in India — both for regional power dynamics and for the national narrative of the ruling NDA.
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A strong win for the NDA could bolster its confidence ahead of other state and national elections; a setback for them would raise questions about their vote-bank and strategy.
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The high turnout suggests a robust democratic process; how this participation translates into seats will be an important story.
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The relatively poor forecast for the opposition raises issues about their relevance, messaging, alliance structure and ground-game in Bihar.
Suggested Lead & Orientation
Lead suggestion: “Exit-polls for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections indicate a comfortable return to power for the NDA, projecting it at 130-160 seats while the Mahagathbandhan lags behind with just 70-100 seats. With a record voter turnout closing at over 67 % in the second phase, the political mood in Bihar appears decisively tilted.”
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